Predictive Modeling of AntiSemitic Trends
A swelling tide of antisemitism worldwide is occurring. It is critical that we understand the dimensions and timing of this tsunami of hate which is engulfing us so that we may take measures to defuse it and defend against it.
A preliminary review of qualitative and quantitative data available from governmental and nongovernmental sources, as well as discussions with thought leaders in this area, reveal a consensus of the inadequacy of currently available data with respect to supporting future decision-making.
There appears to be no existing consensus with respect to how to remedy this situation among the organizations that at present collect information regarding antisemitism.
This lack of adequate data makes it difficult to understand the state of antisemitism, analyze future trends and develop mitigation strategies.
From our professional and academic backgrounds, we are familiar with techniques to ensure appropriate character and quality of many types of data in different fields. We are also cognizant that there is a range of well validated mathematical modeling tools that could potentially be applied to predict the scope and timing of the tidal wave of hate which is occurring.
Goal 1 :
To ensure the acquisition of highly relevant quantitative data which can be used in predictive mathematical models to provide a solid basis for strategic decisions regarding mitigation and defense against antisemitism.
Goal 2 :
To NOT duplicate or replicate existing means of gathering information. Rather, we seek to partner with and to assist existing organizations in the development of better data collection standards for the sake of future-oriented strategic decisions to combat antisemitism.
Goal 3 :
To evaluate the utility of new mathematical models for the description and prediction of trends in antisemitic incidents.
Strategy
1
Identify and collaborate with subject matter experts from a variety of professional and communal backgrounds and organizations.
2
Evaluate current state of data collection and analysis techniques by the standards of quality, validation, and ability to provide insight into future directions of antisemitism in the United States initially, and then bring those tools to bear throughout the world.
3
Explore and test the validity of new potential methods of acquiring adequate quality data.
4
Apply mathematical modeling techniques to identify patterns in antisemitic activity, using methods sufficiently robust to support evaluation of alternative strategies of mitigation and defense.